Sunday 1 April 2018

Distractions semasa TRADE.. Bad!!! Keliru dengan Divergence

Assalamualaikum,

CS sedang mencari formula untuk fokus kepada trading plan, TANPA DISTRACTION. Period.. 

Trading Plan ialah satu-satunya tools yang amat penting untuk TRADING.. Tanpa Trading Plan - semua entry, stop loss, risk management, exit adalah 'ikut rasa hati'... Isunya bukan sebab 'ikut rasa hati', tapi bagaimana.. bagaimana nak kenalpasti 'edge' dalam trading jika asyik trading ikut rasa hati dan tanpa mengikut trading plan...

Sebagai retail trader, cs hanya berkomunikasi dengan 'chart'... Tanpa spesific plan regarding entry, stop loss, entry, risk management... siapa yang akan jadi 'mentor' untuk guide... 

So disebabkan 'CS' trade 'alone', my 'mentor' ialah my trading plan... CS, please do not trade jika tiada Trading Plan... 

Peringatan, tiada university yang mengajar untuk 'trade'... Untuk mahir dalam trading, kita mesti belajar dari mereka yang sudah terbukti berjaya dalam trading... 

Untuk study minda pro trader, kita wajib study 'falsafah' mereka...

Cuba study article ini .. 

Many investors make the mistake of buying high and selling low while the exact opposite is the right strategy.” John Paulson

“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.” George Soros

“Play the market only when all factors are in your favor. No person can play the market all the time and win. There are times when you should be completely out of the market, for emotional as well as economic reasons.” Jesse Livermore

“Fundamentals that you read about are typically useless as the market has already discounted the price, and I call them “funny-mentals”. I am primarily a trend trader with touches of hunches based on about twenty years of experience. In order of importance to me are: (1) the long-term trend, (2) the current chart pattern, and (3) picking a good spot to buy or sell. Those are the three primary components of my trading. Way down in a very distant fourth place are my fundamental ideas and, quite likely, on balance, they have cost me money.” Ed Seykota

“That was when I first decided I had to learn discipline and money management. It was a cathartic experience for me, in the sense that I went to the edge, questioned my very ability as a trader, and decided that I was not going to quit. I was determined to come back and fight. I decided that I was going to become very disciplined and businesslike about my trading.”Paul Tudor Jones

“I’ve certainly done it – that is, made counter-trend initiations. However, as a rule of thumb, I don’t think you should do it.” Richard Dennis

“I’ve learned many things from him [George Soros], but perhaps the most significant is that it’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.” Stanley Druckenmiller

“I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime. Even people who lose money in the market say, “I just lost my money, now I have to do something to make it back.” No, you don’t. You should sit there until you find something.” Jim Rogers

“I believe that the biggest problem that humanity faces is an ego sensitivity to finding out whether one is right or wrong and identifying what one’s strengths and weaknesses are.” Rau Dalio

“Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble” Warren Buffett

Jika kita study dan faham setiap falsafah yang cuba disampaikan oleh pro trader ini, kita akan fahami cara terbaik untuk hadapi market.

Jangan buntu semasa membuat analisa... Jangan mencari second opinion di forum atau google.. Why u need second opinion? 

Jika faham falsafah dan 'sudah' miliki 'trading plan'... kenapa masih mencari 2nd opinion dari forum. Why?

Hakikatnya, bagaimana CS nak buktikan 'my trading plan' ada edge, pada belum dibuktikan dengan 'volume' yang cukup.. Jika loss satu trade, patutkah CS tukar 'trading plan'... Ingat, cuba study 20 trade untuk satu cycle untuk 'setiap satu setup' dan kemudian baru layak untuk membuat kesimpulan...


Outcome of trading ialah Random.. Jika 'trading strategy' mampu memberi 51% win dan 49% Loss...

Ini bermakna, selepas 20 trade, baru semak semula 'trading plan' sama ada wujud 'egde' atau tidak...

Ini juga bermakna, jika 'my trading plan' ada edge dan profitable, jika CS berjaya trade setup yang sama sebanyak 20 trade sehari, maka ia akan memberi daily 'income'... Jika CS berjaya trade 20 trade semingga untuk setup yang sama, maka ia memberi 'weekly income'... Jika CS berjaya melakukan 20 trade sebulan dengan setup yang sama, maka ia memberi 'monthly' income...

Kenapa jangan sesekali dapatnya second opinion...

1) Semestinya kita tidak tahu bagaimana 'mereka' melakukan analysis
2) Kita juga tidak tahu track rekod trading
3) Maybe dia cuma scalper atau maybe dia swing trader or maybe dia long term trader...
4) Setup apa yang digunakan oleh 'pemberi' opinion

So semestinya, bila CS trade alone, maka decide 'alone' dan WAJIB untuk elakkan daripada mendapat second opinion selepas enter the market...

Maybe okay jika dapatkan opinion sebelum masuk post, tapi sekiranya mencari second opinion selepas masuk post - BAD idea.

PS: Cs selalu terganggu oleh sifat divergence dalam chart... Maka ini adalah nasihat untuk diri sendiri.

Divergence - kekadang tak minta second opinion dari forumer, tapi minta opinion dari Divergence.. 

Divergence, macam mendung, tapi tak semestinya hujan...

Trade Smart, Jadikan Hari Ini Lebih Baik Dari Semalam...

Image result for semoga hari ini lebih baik dari semalam



END

CS

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